Sunday, February 21, 2010

Two major snow storms this week?

Confidence is growing for a major snowfall Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning for interior New England and eastern NY. Secondary low pressure forming in the southeast tomorrow afternoon will move into the western Atlantic on Tuesday. A strong inverted trough will remain, linking it to the weakening primary low in southern Ontario. This trough will be the focus for continuous moderate to heavy precipitation. Model guidance differs slightly on the axis of maximum QPF but at this time it looks like eastern NY into southwest New England will be in the QPF jackpot. However, precipitation type will be an issue even up into much of Massachusetts. Low level warmth will be hard to overcome with no prominent high to the north. N MA into SW NH will likely remain all snow, but it will be a wet snow with relatively low ratios.

QP totals through Thursday morning from the first storm will be on the order of 1" to 1.75". Translated, we are looking at snowfall totals possibly reaching double digits.

Preliminary forecast for Keene,NH: 8" to 14"

But that's not all, if you call in the next 5 minutes, we will give you a second snow storm absolutely free. That's right, confidence is also increasing for a second low pressure system to develop in the southeast, and essentially be sucked into the deepening upper level vortex near New England. The low will rapidly deepen as upper level energy phases together, and could produce another round of heavy snow for the region. In addition, strong winds are likely for this second event, suggesting the possibility of blizzard conditions. This is all around day 5 right now in the forecast, so confidence is not as high yet. But the potential does exist for snow totals for this week from now through next weekend of 20" to 40".

I will put together some maps either tonight or tomorrow outlining snow totals across the northeast.

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