Recon in action!

Is hurricane season starting up early this year? Nope, Recon is going after a different target this time. It will be up tomorrow investigating the potential for a developing winter storm in the Pacific Ocean. I will post data from the flight late tomorrow. This will definitely assist the models in formulating the forecast for next week's major winter storm potential. The last time recon was activated for a winter storm was last year for what became the Blizzard of 2006, and has been used for a handful of other storms in the past. The fact that they will be launching this indicates that something interesting is brewing for next week. Pay extra close attention to the model runs this weekend, as the recon data is entered in.

088 
NOUS42 KNHC 081715
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EST THU 08 FEB 2007
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z FEB 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....06-068

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: G-IV FLYING HOURS REMAINING 107.8 HRS.
JWP

OVERVIEW
OF THE 2007 WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE PROGRAM
...
The models have been shifting northward somewhat for the past few runs. The 00z will confirm the use of "shift" vs "trend" for this storm. It is still shown well south of the benchmark. The NAM has boosted some confidence because it is indicating a stronger piece of energy in Canada in the short term. This means that with a stronger northern jet, strong, quicker phasing could take place, which would bring the storm northward to New England. The NAM needs to be watched very closely over the next few days. I have yet to make a decision on which way I want to go with this storm. It is interesting to note the number of professional and amateur meteorologists that are disregarding the models southward forecast and going for a classic New England snow storm. Because of the steady shift for an earlier and earlier arrival time, I'll shift my commitment deadline to 12z Saturday. After the 12z runs, I'll give an honest idea on this storm.

Stay tuned.

By the way, upstate NY just called and said a two foot nor'easter is nothing!
Due to the record breaking warmth that we had earlier in January, the Great Lakes which usually are completely frozen by now, are contributing to significant instability caused by the flow of arctic air into the Northeast. This has yielded incredible snowfalls in New York in some cases over 100 inches ... in the last 3 days!
USA Today Report
Official EUSWX LES obs thread
Official EUSWX LES photo thread