Valentines Day Storm?

It's sad, I know. But our only shot at snow in the foreseeable future is a coastal storm next week that currently the models send way south of us. The arctic airmass over the region will moderate somewhat over the next couple of days, however we will still be talking about temperatures around ten degrees below average for this time of the year. The cold air mass is also an annoyingly dry one, and will be eliminating any chances at snow for the next week. Flurries could fall tomorrow and Friday as a progression of short waves approach the area. This "activity" may increase somewhat on Saturday when the energy passes over the region. We do have a shot at a few snow showers during the day Saturday and maybe into Sunday, but at this point, we are not talking about any accumulation at all.

As for Wednesday's potential of next week, the medium to long range models have all jumped on the idea of a substantial snow storm for the east coast next week. The factor keeping the storm from coming northward is a broad area of high pressure, keeping New England in the ice box, but also suppressing any storms to the south. This high will separate the two jet streams which means phasing cannot occur and therefore the northern jet cannot pick the storm up into New England.

Nevertheless, this storm will be a strong one. This isnt a secondary low forming off the coast. This storm will develop in the Gulf of Mexico (what's called a "Miller A"). The general consensus among the models is for a ENE track to position the low off the Mid Atlantic coast. The larger snow storms of the season usually are picked up early on the models. The current consensus, that is no other model completely loses the storm, is indicative of a major snow event approaching. Someone in the M/A is going to get hit hard from this storm.

As for us in New England, the situation is looking grim. Not one model brings the low up to the 40/70 benchmark (40N 70W). With the timing forecast now shifted a bit sooner -- closer to Wednesday, I'll give the models to 12z Sunday to shift northward. If none are inside the benchmark by then, I'll throw in the towel on this storm. One thing we will certainly not have to worry about with this storm, is the temperature forecast. Even the Cape wont have to worry about temperatures with an arctic high sitting in central Canada. Cape Cod may have the best bet with this storm. As it has entered the 7-day forecast range, the NWS has included in their discussion this evening a paragraph summarizing the situation. They have entered 20% POPs for the Cape but nothing further inland.

Moving on into late February, it appears that the 14th will be our last chance for a major winter storm before warmer air returns. I'm not saying that it is impossible get our biggest event of the season later in February, March, or even April (after all, our biggest event is four inches), but we will start to encounter temperature issues after the 15th to the 20th. I am unsure about what lies ahead for us precipitation wise. I think that naturally with a warmer air mass, we will see more precipitation events, but I cant pinpoint anything at this moment. Since the warm up will not be significant, only enough to put us maybe 5 degrees above average, when there are storms, we will probably be on the edge of the rain / snow line and much will depend on a few degrees.

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Just a little "enlightenment":

Current sun rise: 6:56AM
Current sun set: 5:10PM

Time of light: 10 hours 14 minutes
Time gained since 12/21: 1 hour 13 minutes