Despite biting winds and falling temperatures, today was a beautiful day with lots of sunshine. tonight, winds will begin to die down, and radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall to around 20. We could reach the teens if the winds shut down early enough. Tomorrow, sunny skies will assist temperatures up to around 50, despite a strong northerly flow. Tomorrow night will be similar tonight with dying winds and radiational cooling sending lows to around 20. Tomorrow, high pressure will move off-shore North Carolina, and shift winds back to the west. Highs will be able to reach the upper 50's. High pressure north of the Lakes will be the boundary between Canadian cold and a SW flow out of Texas. The northerly flow from this high and low pressure over Nova Scotia will be countered by the NC high, however the boundary could set up a small temperature gradient over eastern NH and parts of Maine, so northern New England will remain on the chilly side. Saturday will continue the dry weather trend. High pressure north of the Lakes will move east southeast to just north of the region. The vortex over NS will stay in place. This will push cold air back south, meaning highs around 50. Saturday Night, a short wave will move northeast out of the midwest. A strong southerly flow out ahead of the storm will keep temperatures around 30 overnight.
Sunday, sunny skies will still greet us in the morning, however increasing clouds will begin by noontime, and scattered showers will enter the region by around 3pm to 4pm. The increasing clouds and winds will stop warming from reaching its full potential and will even keep highs in the mid 40's. Rain showers will become more widespread overnight Sunday. The GFS is indicating .5 to .75 of W.E. precipitation through 12z Monday. No flooding concerns though, as most, if not all of the snow will be gone by then. The larger story is the precipitation type Sunday Night. The southerly flow will not be able to kick out some surface cold entrenched north of the Mass Pike. The GFS 850mb temperature map for 06z Monday has the 0C line on a north-south axis across central Maine with 6C into southern NH and VT. MOS data from the GFSX however is forecasting a low of 29 at the surface in Keene.
The 18z GFS forecast sounding for 06z Monday:
So the story for Sunday Night through about 9am Monday will likely be freezing rain.
The rain will taper off Monday Night, but another storm system will keep clouds in the forecast. Another chance of rain will enter the picture on Tuesday with freezing rain potential overnight. My temperature forecast for Wednesday is well underneath MOS and NWS forecasts, and following closer the op GFS forecast of the start of a below normal regime in the region.
More on the long term coming up tomorrow.
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