A cold and stormy beginning to April

The call that I made in February continues become more likely. The time frame of the arctic outbreak has been shifted back a bit. Also, the GFS's extreme solution last week has diminished somewhat, however, very cold temperatures and a couple of snow events remain likely through the 15th.

A storm system will move northwest of the region on Sunday, spreading precipitation into the area Sunday night. Cold air at the surface will allow for a period of freezing rain, ending early Monday. While nothing significant is expected, it could be enough to warrant an advisory and enough to make the morning commute hazardous.

This storm will move north over the Hudson Bay, and will continue to pump warm air up at around 2000 feet. Moderate winds will prevent any of this warm air from mixing down to the surface, and will allow cold air to remain entrenched in the region, with temperatures at the surface around freezing during the nights.

A second storm will move south of the Canadian low, bringing a chance of showers into New England on Tuesday. once again there will be freezing rain potential Tuesday night, with the possibility even for some sleet or wet snow. No accumulation is expected at this time.

The storm low will move east of Newfoundland on Thursday, which will set up a Greenland block and neutral to negative NAO. This will stick around through at least mid April.

This will break the dam holding back lingering winter cold in northern Canada. Low pressure over the Hudson bay will be pulled east allowing high pressure to be established. This will mean a negative AO (which has good support from the ensembles) will develop, which will pull the cold air southward into the Great Lakes region on Thursday.

The cold will reach the region on Friday, keeping highs around 40. The -NAO blocking will allow a strong trough to form along the east coast.

There has been some inidication of a significant storm strengthening in the southern states over the weekend of the 7th. However, the past several GFS runs have suppressed this storm 500 to 800 miles to our south. Still plan for a potential snow event around the 8th through the 11th.

The last cold air mass of the winter will start weaken as we near the middle of the month, and we will return to normal temperatures through the 25th.

For the record:
The CPC has switched over to closely mirror my thoughts on the next two weeks. The dry and average temp forecast for the first week of April has been replaced with 60% confidence (high) on both above average precipitation and below average temperatures through the 11th.