As I have been forecasting for the past month or so, a major pattern changing storm is likely for April 2 - 5. The GFS is starting to latch onto the idea, and talk is rocking of another late-season winter storm.
Analysis of first half of March:
Extreme cold was the story through the 10th. I underestimated the arctic blast in my long range forecast in February. As forecasted, a positive AO and NAO finally boosted temperatures into the 50's. A storm system moved out of southern Canada and brought some showery weather on the 14th. What was not in the forecast was a major winter storm for the 16th and 17th. Low pressure in the southern states moved northeast and phased with the storm out of Canada and brought widespread snow, ice, and flooding to the northeast and mid atlantic regions. This storm came during a peak in the AO and NAO at +2 SD which, while it can happen, is certainly unusual.
Next 3 days:
A cold air mass has moved in behind the storm and put highs down in the 20s and 30s across the region. This air mass will be reinforced by a clipper that will deliver a dusting to an inch of snow on Monday night. Highs will continue in the 20s and 30s through Wednesday with lows ranging from the single digits north of the MA/NH border to the 20s along the coast.
Thursday through early next week:
A split flow pattern and flat jet along the US/Canada border will mean a mild flow of air from the west and southwest along with little in the way of precipitation. A weak storm system will bring a chance of showers on Thursday Night and Friday. Highs will top the mid 50s on Friday but moderating to aorund 50 for the weekend. Highs 50 to 55 will continue into early next week, but a building -NAO will create a weak cold air mass just north of the region, so no run-away warming through Tuesday (3/27).
Details on the Early April threat coming up later...
Analysis of first half of March:
Extreme cold was the story through the 10th. I underestimated the arctic blast in my long range forecast in February. As forecasted, a positive AO and NAO finally boosted temperatures into the 50's. A storm system moved out of southern Canada and brought some showery weather on the 14th. What was not in the forecast was a major winter storm for the 16th and 17th. Low pressure in the southern states moved northeast and phased with the storm out of Canada and brought widespread snow, ice, and flooding to the northeast and mid atlantic regions. This storm came during a peak in the AO and NAO at +2 SD which, while it can happen, is certainly unusual.
Next 3 days:
A cold air mass has moved in behind the storm and put highs down in the 20s and 30s across the region. This air mass will be reinforced by a clipper that will deliver a dusting to an inch of snow on Monday night. Highs will continue in the 20s and 30s through Wednesday with lows ranging from the single digits north of the MA/NH border to the 20s along the coast.
Thursday through early next week:
A split flow pattern and flat jet along the US/Canada border will mean a mild flow of air from the west and southwest along with little in the way of precipitation. A weak storm system will bring a chance of showers on Thursday Night and Friday. Highs will top the mid 50s on Friday but moderating to aorund 50 for the weekend. Highs 50 to 55 will continue into early next week, but a building -NAO will create a weak cold air mass just north of the region, so no run-away warming through Tuesday (3/27).
Details on the Early April threat coming up later...
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