cold rain through Monday, Isaac a cane

First with the tropics: Isaac continues to strengthen over warmer waters and at 11am was declared the fifth hurricane of the 2006 season. Further strengthening is possible through the next 48 hours and Isaac could become a category 2 hurricane before becoming extratropical in the northern Atlantic. Isaac is moving towards the WNW and should turn towards the north within the next day or so. interests in Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland should monitor Isaac closely.


Today started out clear and cold with Keene reaching its lowest so far this autumn at 34. Concord reached 30 and received its first freez of the season. clouds have been moving in over the past few hours and it is currently overcast in Keene with a temperature back in the low to mid 50s. Tonight, rain will move into the region as a strong storm in the Ohio Valley moves eastward. Latest indication is that it will move south of the region forming the axis of heaviest rain south of the Mass Pike. colder air will be allowed into the area tomorrow and without any solar heating, temps will struggle into the mid 50s likely giving many cities in NE their coldest high so far this season. Rain will continue through tomorrow with possibly some banding and heavy rain at times. thunder is not included in the Keene forecast however south of the area, it can not be ruled out. overnight lows Sunday night will not fall too much with the cloud cover. readings will likely be in the low to mid 40s Monday morning. showers will continue right on into Monday tapering off into the afternoon. highs behind the storm will be a little warmer with readings possible in the low 60s. A brief warm spell will continue into Wednesday with highs topping out in the upper 60s to near 70 and lows in the low 50s possible Tuesday Night! Another storm system will bring a chance for rain Wednesday. temperatures will tumble behind the storm with highs in the 50s and lows around 40 for the rest of the week.
Post Script
This is the season of the long term forecast/outlook especially as we likely move within a month of our first snowfall. the GFS has been indicating different events here and there with frozen precip past 10 days out. Obviously none of these can be accurately made into a forecast, however it indicates the start of the snow season is coming up quick. I will try my best to find time to post a winter 2006-2007 outlook sometime this week. outlooks from both amateur and professional meteorologists have been posted in the weather forums and I may reflect on them later.

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Foliage report courtesy of The Foliage Network:
"September 30, 2006

Much of northern New England is aglow with the spectacular colors of fall. Peak conditions can be found in the northern one-third of Maine and extreme northern New Hampshire. Not far behind is the central one-third of Maine, northern New Hampshire, northeastern Vermont, portions of the Green Mountains of Vermont and the Adirondack Mountains in northeast New York. These areas are reporting high color (61% - 80% change). The rest of the Northeast is experiencing low to moderate color change.

Leaf drop is mostly very low in the Northeast with the exception of those areas with moderate to peak color. Leaf drop in those areas is low.

This information provided by Marek D. Rzonca, The Foliage Network.

Next Report: Wednesday, October 4, 2006"


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If you took a drive around Keene, you'd see low to moderate colors. Peak is still a good two to three weeks away. This year has a much better beginning than last years. Here is a map of last year's courtesy of The Foliage Network:

As you can see on the map, last year at this point, we still had little to no colors.

2004 at this time^^^ was more similar to the current status.

Leaf drop status is low at this point also. It appears that 2006 will be a wonderful year for tourists in New England.