Cold and sunny today, rain Tue through Fri

Much time this past week has been devoted to tracking a monster storm system that caused a lot of havok in the Great Lakes Region. In New England, the only thing that can be reported is heavy rains overnight from the 11th (Wednesday) through the 12th (Thursday) and perhaps a few first flake situations in the north country.

First and foremost is the situation over in the Great Lakes Region. The main storm system swept through that region Tuesday Night bring cold and wind and changing rain to snow in North Dakota, Minnesota, and into Michigan. Snow continued to fall behind the storm as the Lake Effect Snow machine started up for the first time this season. This occurance was one of the earliest LES events in history. Winter Storm Warnings were issued for the Michigan Peninsula in anticipation of 1 to 2 feet of snow. As the storm system continued east and north, rain changed to snow further south into Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, and spreaded eastward into east Michigan, and New York. Winter storm warnings were expanded to include western portions of the mainland Michigan and Lake Effect Snow warnings were issued in western NY to include Buffalo. When all was said and done, a swath of 5 to 25 inches of snow existed from Michigan off Lake Superior, to Michigan off Lake Michigan, to western NY off Lake Erie. The combination of leaves still on the trees, up to two feet of wet snow, and high winds, caused numerous power outages. As it is, still thousands are without power in the Buffalo area.

 000
 SXUS71 KBUF 130856
 RERBUF
 
 RECORD EVENT REPORT 
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
 500AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006
 
 ...SNOWIEST DAYS ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...
 
 THE UNPRECEDENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM THAT CONTINUED ACROSS THE 
 NIAGARA FRONTIER THROUGH THE WEE MORNING HOURS PRODUCED SOME 
 IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL TOTALS.  
 
 RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS FOR SNOWFALL AT 
 BUFFALO.
 
 ON THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12, THE BUFFALO AIRPORT RECORDED 8.3 INCHES OF 
 SNOW, BREAKING THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR DAILY SNOWFALL IN OCTOBER, 
 WHICH WAS 6 INCHES LAST SET ON OCTOBER 31, 1917.
 
 THURSDAY`S RECORD DID NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER. THROUGH 5AM FOR FRIDAY, 
 OCTOBER 13, BUFFALO RECORDED 10.9 INCHES OF SNOW, SETTING A NEW MARK 
 FOR THE SNOWIEST DAY IN OCTOBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN BACK IN 1870. 
  
 THE CULPRIT FOR THIS RECORD SNOW IS THE EARLIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
 STORM ON RECORD TO HIT THE CITY OF BUFFALO. 

By the way, Lake Effect Snow Warnings continue to the north of Buffalo as a continued string of snow showers is coming off of Lake Ontario this morning.
Here is the ongoing thread about the Buffalo situation from EUSWX: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=109165
Also: Pictures
And finally: The NWS Summary

In New England, rain started falling Wednesday afternoon, as the front approached the region. At this point, the storm was really starting to wind up in southern Canada. By Thursday Morning, the low pressure center was sub 980mb. Overnight Wednesday through Thursday, heavy rains fell across much of New England. Total rainfall neared 3.5 inches in some areas. In Keene, I recorded 2.20in of rain however didnt have time to report it before going to school.

NOUS41 KBOX 121930
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-131800-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS WERE FROM THE STORM THAT 
BEGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OCTOBER 11 2006 AND ENDED THURSDAY MORNING 
OCT 12.  APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN 
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO 
AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON


LOCATION              STORM TOTAL   TIME/DATE  COMMENTS    
                       RAINFALL       OF 
                      (INCHES)     MEASUREMENT


CONNECTICUT

...HARTFORD COUNTY...
   NORTH GRANBY          2.22  1135 AM 10/12   SPOTTER

...WINDHAM COUNTY...
   HAMPTON               2.94   730 AM 10/12   NWS COOP

MASSACHUSETTS

...HAMPDEN COUNTY...
   SOUTHWICK             2.07   740 PM 10/12   SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   LOWELL                2.86   700 AM 10/12   NWS COOP
   WESTFORD              2.40   700 AM 10/12   SPOTTER
   BILLERICA             2.25   100 PM 10/12   SPOTTER
   MAYNARD               2.24   700 AM 10/12   NWS COOP
   BEDFORD               2.00   700 AM 10/12   HANSCOM FIELD

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   FOXBORO               2.18   700 AM 10/12   NWS COOP
   MEDWAY                2.10   700 AM 10/12   SPOTTER

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
   FISKDALE              2.40   922 AM 10/12   NWS COOP
   SOUTHBRIDGE           2.31   907 AM 10/12   SPOTTER
   WORCESTER             2.31   800 AM 10/12   ASOS
   BIRCH HILL DAM        2.27   721 AM 10/12   NWS COOP
   FITCHBURG             2.06   800 AM 10/12   ASOS
   ASHBURNHAM            2.01   700 AM 10/12   NWS COOP

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
   RINDGE                3.19   908 AM 10/12   SPOTTER
   JAFFREY               2.04   800 AM 10/12   ASOS

...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
   HUDSON                3.02   700 AM 10/12   NWS COOP
   MANCHESTER            2.71   912 AM 10/12   ASOS
   MILFORD               2.57   700 AM 10/12   NWS COOP
   NASHUA                2.12   800 AM 10/12   NAWAS

RHODE ISLAND

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...
   WOONSOCKET            2.01   800 AM 10/12   NWS COOP

$$

Now that the storm has pulled completely out of the region, sunny skies are here to stay for the next 48 hours at least. Yesterday, a few showers wetted the region as a second cold front cut through the region bringing an abrupt temperature drop in addition to gusty winds. Today sunny skies will assist in rebounded temperatures up into the low 50s. Another beautiful weekend for tourists (Foliage report below). Tonight and tomorrow night will be chilly with lows dropping into the upper 20s both nights. Tomorrow: another sunny day in store with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s. On Tuesday, a storm system will approach the region from the west triggering showers and thunderstorms to the south of the region. Warmer air out ahead of the storm will allow highs into the upper 50s and lows around 40 through Friday. This could be a heavy rain event for much of the eastern two thirds of the nation and perhaps a severe weather situation in the southern states or even the mid Atlantic region. Flood Warnings by the way have been issued for the Buffalo area as heavy rains later this week combine with quick snow melt. Showers will continue into Wednesday, becoming steady rain and heavy at times. On Thursday, the rain will become more scattered in nature giving the region a break for 12 hours or so, and then another batch of rain will move in on Friday. As the storm pulls away, rain will taper off Friday Night. Colder and drier air will move in on Saturday. Highs will drop back down to around 50 with lows around 30.

Now that leads us to our next story which comes up early next week. Highs around 50 and lows around 30 will continue through Monday. A major storm system is shown on the GFS, and GFSX ramping up in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday, and then moving up the coast Monday Night. This would bring heavy rains to the region next Tuesday. With colder air in place, this storm will also pull more cold air down from Canada behind it. It's possible for rain to change to heavy snow as the storm pulls away late Tuesday Night. This is a long ways out but since it is near the 7 day forecast period, the GFS solution should be monitored for consistency on this storm.

The tropics are actually somewhat active with THREE invests to talk about right now: 90L north of Puerto Rico, 91L in the eastern Atlantic, and 92L in the western Gulf of Mexico. 90L has been up for a while now but has been disapating slowly and development is not likely. Invest 91L is in a very unfavorable environment and infact the SHIPS intensity forecast drops it from 25kts to 0kts in just 72hrs (unusual for the SHIP model unless disapation is immenent). Invest 92L is the only one looking pretty good right now. Convection has increased around the low pressure center in the past 12 hours. The only major inhibiting factor is the outflow from TD Norman in the Pacific which has been producing a lot of shear over 92L. Dry air has begun to push 92L back east and north a bit which is delaying landfall on Mexico and Texas. Once Norman disapates over Mexico, Invest 92L may have a shot at becoming a TD before making landfall. It should be noted that right now (contrary to the popular opinion which has been distorted in reaction to 2004 and 2005) 2006 is at the average number of named storms for this point in the season and is NOT an incredibly inactive season.

---

FOLIAGE UPDATE:
Courtesy of The Foliage Network
Foliage Report #12

October 14, 2006

What season is this??? Upwards of two feet of snow fell recently in parts of western New York. That heavy, wet snow was not good news for the foliage. The good news is that the snowfall was isolated to a fairly small area. Elsewhere in the Northeast, the foliage season is progressing nicely. Northern New York and northern New England are either at or past peak. The Catskill Mountains in southeastern New York and portions of New York's southern tier are at peak. High color can be found elsewhere in New York with the exception of the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys and downstate New York, where foliage is still moderate. Southern New England and Pennsylvania are a mix of moderate and high color. In New Jersey, the foliage is moderate to high in the northern part of the state and still low in southern Jersey.

Leaf drop is mostly moderate but in areas that have passed peak, leaf drop is now high.

This information provided by Marek D. Rzonca, The Foliage Network.

Next Report: Wednesday, October 18, 2006




Coloration is near peak here in Keene. Leaf drop has increased a lot over the past few days with increasing winds, however there are still over 50% on the trees. Driving around, you'll see many of the Maples with most of their leaves gone, however we still have the oaks which will hold on to their leaves for a while longer. It appears that in New England, this is one of the best autumns in a long while. This time last year, conditions werent even near as great as they are now.