UPDATE (10/14): COLD AIR... SNOW COMING TONIGHT???
Snow has been mentioned in the BOX AFD again for tonight (posted in winter page). A cold front will cut across the region this evening, bringing showers and gusty winds. temperatures will tumble into the upper 20s to low 30s tonight. Some energy behind the front may be enough for some flurries or snow showers. No accumulation is expected.
UPDATE (10/13): SNOW MENTIONED AGAIN IN BOX AFD
The AFD text is posted in the winter weather outlook page. Right now, Im liking the chances of at least some flurries tomorrow night. Last night low was 30 and tongith should drop into the 20s. Tomorrow, highs are forecasted a little higher up in the 50s due to a good amount of heating from the sun. Tomorrow night, lows will drop back in the 20s to near 30. A short wave will pass near the region Saturday night, bringing a slight chance for showers starting Saturday afternoon. The showers could change to snow in NW MA and SW NH overnight Saturday.
Stay Tuned.
UPDATE (10/12 PM): STORM STRENGTHENING IN SOUTHERN CANADA
Simply incredible. Not one person truly believed the forecast that the models had for us 5 days ago, and now it is upon us. Snow has taken hold of much of Wisconson, Michigan, and spreading into Ohio, Pennsylvania, and NY. The low pressure center responsible for record breaking snowfalls over 2 feet in some parts has bombed out to 975mb and is pumping frigid air into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and starting in on the Northeast as I type. The front is just an hour or two from Keene. Temperatures will begin to fall steadily this evening and will drop out into the low to mid 30s tonight. Further west, we can discover what we have in store for tomorrow night. Freeze warnings literally extend across two thirds of the nation. Temperatures in the northern states are currently struggling into the 30s and dropping out tonight into the teens. We will not reach the teens yet however 20s are likely for much of NW MA and SW NH tomorrow night.
Our chances for snow still exist and as the rain snow line approaches the region, my excitement increases, however moisture may be too little in the offering for any snow showers or even flurries. Our chances for snow exist tonight as Lake Effect and moisture behind the front try to reach New England. Then, tomorrow night, moisture will enter the eastern part of New England as an area of low pressure moves northward along the coast. The question is how far west the low will travel, and how far west will the precipitation shield extend. That is another chance for snow if the energy from that storm can reach SW NH.
UPDATE (10/12 AM): SNOW FROM OHIO TO KANSAS
Quite the radar picture right now. Heavy rain swept through the region last night. we still have some heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms (mostly lake effect) heading eastward and should reach the area later this morning. the snow/rain line is currently crossing Lake Erie and western NY could start to see some flakes later this morning. As you can see on the surface map, the front has just started entering western NY. The front actually extends down into the Gulf of Mexico which is very unusual for this time of year (National Surface Map). As the front approaches the area today, showers will fall intermittently through this afternoon. There is a still a chance for the higher evelations of SW NH and NW MA to see some flurries or snow showers tonight as the colder air moves in. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s today. The front will cross the region tonight allowing temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s by tomorrow morning. Then for Friday and Saturday the coldest weather of the season will have taken hold with highs in the upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
UPDATE (10/11): FRONT CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR
Winter storm warnings are now up in Michigan for up to 2 feet of snow, in fact now the NWS there is discussing up to 2 and a half feet! Snow has already started to fall in Minnesota where the front crossed last night. Freeze warnings extend down to Kansas. Here, we will be looking at highs in the upper 40s and lows around 30.
Invest 90L has been declared in the caribbean, more later.
UPDATE (10/9): SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL IN FORECAST
Winter storm watches have been posted for northern Michigan in anticipation of as much as 7 to 13 inches by the time the snow ends Saturday. Here in Keene, it is still up in the air if we are going to GET any snow. Latest GFS runs continue to bring the low further north into Canada meaning no energy left for any developement after the front passes. The WRF is the nice one bringing the low southward eventually passing near Detroit. This would likely give us at least some flurries through Saturday morning as band of Lake Effect Snows weaken over the Green Mountains.
Another interesting note: A few model runs are indicating subtropical development off the DelMarVa coast on Wednesday and affecting New England through Thursday. This is all relatively new and I dont have much information on it, however if this occurred, we could have some heavy rain issues through Thursday. And even more, if the path is slower than currently projected, we may have some energy to work with to form snow showers over NW MA and SW NH late Friday Night.
Stay tuned for the latest on the crazy weather this week. I'll have updates soon in each of the outlook pages.
I havent posted about this system until now because I wanted to see what the models would do over these past few days. It turns out that the model runs of the GFS and EURO have been indicating more than ever a major, near historical system to affect from the high plains into the Northeast. Many NWS offices in this stretch have expressed their thoughts on the GFS forecast and skeptism is still present. I am going to discuss this, just translating what the models are indicating.
Right now, the GFS model is showing a sub 990mb low moving over the Great Lakes. A nice negative tilt, and frontal boundary that stretches into Texas. Out ahead of the front, the temperature gradient is 20 to 30 degrees. Severe weather is possible along the boudary from Southern New England down into the southern states. In fact, already some NWS AFDs have discussed supercell potential. What the models have shown is actually some potential for tornadoes as far north as the Great Lakes region. With the 540 dm line east of the Lakes, snow could stretch into western NY. (Historical note: the coldest temperature at which a tornado has existed was 41F). What was not expected is the confidence in this major storm occuring. What is probably more interesting to you at this time of course is the chance for snowfall. Currently, it appears snowfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in the midwest and into the Great Lakes region. Into New England, this gets uncertain as while the arctic blast will reach the area, some of the energy may move into Canada leaving New England dry. However, with colder air in place comes the possibility for snowfall with the next storm system and in fact there is a chance for our first flakes to fall sometime next week (beyond the 7 day forecast period).
This has the potential to be a serious situation coming up for Thursday through Saturday. Starting with a significant severe weather outbreak and possibly ending with howling winds, snow, and cold. Please stay tuned here for the latest. I will have posted in the severe and winter weather outlook pages more details on the situation.
Quite the radar picture right now. Heavy rain swept through the region last night. we still have some heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms (mostly lake effect) heading eastward and should reach the area later this morning. the snow/rain line is currently crossing Lake Erie and western NY could start to see some flakes later this morning. As you can see on the surface map, the front has just started entering western NY. The front actually extends down into the Gulf of Mexico which is very unusual for this time of year (National Surface Map). As the front approaches the area today, showers will fall intermittently through this afternoon. There is a still a chance for the higher evelations of SW NH and NW MA to see some flurries or snow showers tonight as the colder air moves in. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s today. The front will cross the region tonight allowing temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s by tomorrow morning. Then for Friday and Saturday the coldest weather of the season will have taken hold with highs in the upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
I havent posted about this system until now because I wanted to see what the models would do over these past few days. It turns out that the model runs of the GFS and EURO have been indicating more than ever a major, near historical system to affect from the high plains into the Northeast. Many NWS offices in this stretch have expressed their thoughts on the GFS forecast and skeptism is still present. I am going to discuss this, just translating what the models are indicating.
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