A strong cold front poised to cross the region tomorrow will bring with it widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms through the late morning in SW NH. While upper jet dynamics are favorable for some stronger thunderstorms, instability levels will not nearly be enough to support anything other than a few rumbles of thunder. That being said, there will be a decent amount of moisure for the front to work with, so some isolated heavy downpours are possible. Total rainfall will be around .25" to .5". Most of this activity should be out of our way by noontime, and we may see some peaks of sun in the late afternoon. High temperatures will reach the mid 60's, although 68 to 70 is possible if there is more sunshine.
Behind the front, cooler and drier air will be ushered into the region, with highs through the weekend 5 to 8 degrees below normal. The Euro (upgraded as of 12z by the way) is notably colder than previous runs and versus the GFS. Skies should be primarily mostly sunny, however a couple fast moving short waves will swing through first Friday and then Monday bringing brief periods of cloudiness and a few passing showers. Temperatures will begin to moderate by early next week.
A deeper short wave trough develops in the west by day 5. Short wave will move into the Great Lakes region on Monday night. This system will lift north and deamplify. Clouds will spread into the region on Tuesday, followed by the threat of showers Wednesday into Thursday morning. As the wave lifts north, warmer temperatures will briefly be drawn into the region, before falling back again with the passage of a cold front Thursday.
Using several roll forward analogs based on the pattern this past month, it appears that October and November could feature primarily below normal temperatures. In addition, November could be a stormy month. Details will be posted later this week.
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