Very cold regime ahead

Long term forecast continues on track, if not maybe a few days too fast. Regardless, the Euro and GFS ensembles have been very much in agreement on much below normal temperatures impacting the region during the next two weeks. We can expect 2m temperatures 10 to 20 degrees F below the normal for this time of year which is on average the coldest part of winter.

Starting with a storm system that will amplify along a baroclinic zone to our east on Monday, 850mb temperatures of -20C to -25C will stream in from Canada. Strong high pressure over the northern Plains and Rockies combined with a very intense vortex north of Newfoundland will generate a very tight pressure gradient across the Great Lakes and into the northeast. This gradient will generate strong north to northwest winds advecting an arctic airmass southward.

2m temperatures between the 14th and 19th could be the coldest we've seen in since January 2003 when highs topped out in the single digits and lows approached 20 below zero.

Medium range snowfall threats:

Saturday - Sunday 1/10-11

Monday N - Tuesday 1/13

Both of these storms will be discussed in the Winter Weather Outlook page over the next fews days.