Heavy rain and t'storm threat Sunday

An upper level low will move northeast to the Great Lakes region Sunday morning, extending an intense upper jet (max 130kt) aligned south to north across VA, PA, into western NY. Second jet max of 140kts will extend south of Newfoundland, providing good upper level divergence. Mid level low will be decently aligned with the upper levels, with vorticity maxes rotating through the Ohio Valley and another developing over the surface cold front in association with occlusion. Secondary surface low pressure will be developing in this zone in the mid Atlantic region, and will track northward as the cold front slides slowly eastward. Attendant warm front will be pushing northward with the low through the day, with a strong low level jet pumping warmth and moisture northward. The entire column will be saturated by mid morning. Temperature inversion of 10C will be located around the 850mb to 825mb level (1500m). Below this level, toward the surface, temperatures will have a large dependence on the northward extent of the warm front (before the cold frontal passage) and how thick morning cloudiness is. Regardless, mid level lapse rates and total totals in the high 40's will support elevated convection, and the possibility exists for some strong thunderstorm development with the cold front passage. Heavy rainfall will likely effect much of the region, with total accumulation around an inch through Sunday evening, locally as high 2" in thunderstorms.