Rain, thunder? Sunday

Low pressure will be deepening over the Mississippi River valley today while moving northeastward to a position over southern Illinois by this evening. Weather ramifications out west include a blizzard over portions of Kansas and Oklahoma with severe weather / tornadoes over Alabama and Georgia. Warm air advection will be increasing through the day today with high pressure moving offshore. Skies will start off mostly sunny this morning, with increasing clouds toward evening. 850mb temperatures around 5C with sun will support highs nearing 60 this afternoon.

Low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes region tonight, with attendant warm front nearing Long Island by mid morning Sunday. Skies will become cloud covered tonight with warm advection showers starting up before daybreak. Heaviest precipitation will still be to our south at dawn, but some heavier showers will likely develop north of I90 by the late morning and afternoon as the warm front slowly lifts northward. With PWATs increasing to between 1.1" and 1.4", overall, period of showers, heavy at times through the day. Strong temperature inversion will be present at the 850mb level with temperature and dew point around 10C in the afternoon. Surface temperatures will be stuck in the 40's for most of the day. Highs will depend on exactly how far north the warm front can reach. There will be a fairly tight gradient with high temperatures across SNE, ranging from the low 60's over southeast New England to the upper 40's over western MA, S VT, and S NH. Could see some thunder in the late afternoon, specifically between 3pm and 6pm. Total totals will near 50 with mid level lapse rates around 5.6-6.0°C/km. This will support elevated convection across the region. The potential for some stronger storms will exist across E CT and RI where more instability develops closer to the surface. This threat is being discussed in the severe weather outlook.

Monday, cold pool aloft will continue to support clouds and some scattered showers. Temperatures will be in the 40's. Skies clear for Tuesday, with highs recovering into the mid 50's. Wednesday, intense short wave will lift through the western Great Lakes with associated cold front stalling to the west of the region. Decent consensus for rapidly developing coastal wave along the front, bringing rain to the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Frontal passage on Friday with scattered showers. Drying should take place for the weekend, with rising temperatures. Averaged 8-10 height anomalies indicate a general positive slope west to east across the nation.