Monday, March 30, 2009

Rainy regime


Surface high pressure will build into southern New England on Tuesday, bringing clearing skies and light winds. Solar heating will allow highs to reach the mid 50's.

Upper level ridge crests over New England Tuesday night with cyclonic flow developing on Wednesday. The next system out of the northern Plains will move through southern Ontario Wednesday evening, dragging a frontal boundary with a weak coastal wave developing south of the region. This will deliver a period of light showers Wednesday night. The timing of precipitation is a little uncertain, but amounts should be fairly light.

Onshore flow on Thursday will keep low level moisture over New England, locking in cloudiness through the day. The next system will be developing in the southern Plains, and will move into the Ohio Valley by Friday morning. Increasing warm air advection will generate showers across the region. Low pressure strengthens and moves through New York state Friday night. Increasing dynamics combined with abundant moisture could enhance precipitation rates for a time late in the day Friday.

Cyclonic flow will continue to generate scattered showers through Saturday morning, with clearing skies Saturday afternoon as low pressure departs and ridge axis approaches from the west/southwest. Sunday should feature partly to mostly sunny skies, with temperatures into the mid to upper 50's.

Once again, it will be just a brief respite from storminess as another storm system will be developing in the southern Plains and ejecting toward the Great Lakes on Monday. Similar senario: warm advection showers followed by the frontal passage Tuesday afternoon.

It does not look like there will be any large temperature swings in the next week with only weak advection patterns due to wave breaking staying to our west. General range for highs will be the 50's.

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